Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning Election Plunge With Betting Markets

Over the past few days, the chances of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election have deteriorated noticeably with a number of leading betting companies.
Kalshi, a prediction market website, gave Trump a 64 percent chance of victory at 9 p.m. ET on October 29, against 36 percent for Democratic rival Kamala Harris. However, as of 8 a.m. ET on Friday, Trump’s chances had declined to 56 percent, against 44 percent for Harris. With Polymarket, another predictions website where customers can buy and sell shares on events taking place, Trump’s odds of winning fell from 67 percent on October 30 to 63 percent on November 1. The same period saw Harris’s odds improve from 33 percent to 37 percent.
Polling indicates the 2024 presidential election remains close, with an analysis of recent surveys by election website FiveThirtyEight released on Friday giving Harris a 1.2 point national lead, with 47.9 percent of the vote against 46.8 percent for Trump. However, overall, FiveThirtyEight has Trump as favorite with a 53 percent chance of victory, against 47 percent for Harris. Due to the Electoral College system, a candidate can win the most votes but lose the election overall, as happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
On October 29, bookmakers Bet365, PaddyPower and Betfair all gave Trump odds of 1/2 (66.7 percent) on achieving victory on November 5. However, by November 1, the first two of these had lengthened his odds to 4/7 (63.6 percent) whilst they moved to 8/15 (65.2 percent) with Betfair. Over the same period, Trump’s odds on winning went from 8/15 (65.2 percent) to 8/13 (61.9 percent) with Betfred.
Newsweek contacted the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidential election campaigns for comment on Friday by email outside of regular office hours.
On Sunday, Trump held a rally at New York’s iconic Madison Square Garden, where comedian Tony Hinchcliffe sparked controversy by describing Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.” Hinchcliffe later defended his comments on X, formerly Twitter, insisting he “made fun of everyone” at the event.
Two days later, Biden appeared to call Trump supporter “garbage” when asked about the row, though White House spokesperson Andrew Bates told Newsweek the president was only referring the “hateful rhetoric coming out of the Madison Square Garden rally.”
In response, on Wednesday, Trump, wearing an orange fluorescent vest, was photographed in a garbage truck featuring his campaign branding during a visit to Wisconsin. Addressing reporters Trump said: “How do you like my garbage truck? This truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden.”
The Republican nominee later joked he’d agreed to wear the orange vest, which sparked a viral reaction on social media, after his team told him it made him look thinner.
At a rally in Green Bay, Trump said his initial reaction to the suggestion was “no way,” but his team replied: “If you did, you know, it actually makes you look thinner.”
The former president continued: “They got me. I said, ‘I want to wear it on stage.’ I may never wear a blue jacket again.'”